It depends on the finish of the individual colour scheme - obviously, late-war USN aorcraft in overall Glossy Sea Blue left the factory glossy - but a lot of paints we think of as matt were, when first applied at least, more satin in finish. This was especially true of Luftwaffe colours. Same with non-camouflaged USAAF aircraft, except for the anti-dazzle panels and similar.Fighters were often olished to make them go faster - a smooth paint finish can add 10mph or more to an aircraft’s top speed, and in air combat, that can make all the difference between survival or not.
While satin paints would eventually weather to matt, a lot would depend on the operational environment. Paint would weather more rapidly on carrier-borne aircraft exposed to salty sea air, or aircraft used in a harsh desert environment, for example, than they would for aircraft flying in the temperate climes of North-western Europe. Against that, a lot of aircraft didn’t last long enough to get weathered before getting shot down. And the material over which paint is applied also matters - paint applied over fabric or wooden surfaces often loooks less shiny than the same paint applied to metal surfaces.
However, on model aircraft, you also have to consider scale effect - the tendency of gloss finishes to look excessive and unrealistic, especially in the smaller scales. Thus many modellers prefer a matt finish where the original was satin or semigloss, and even where the original had a glossy finish, anything beyond satin somehow looks wrong and toy-like.
Finall, remember that museum exhibits and gate guardians are not necessarily reliable references. It’s not unheard of for a gate guardian to be painted with modern, glossy, paints, even though the people responsible for painting the aircraft knew full well that the finish should be matt,because the modern paint resists weathering better, and thus needs to be re-painted less often. From the other extreme, museum exhibits can look vey faded and weathered, having been exposed to the elements for decades without re-painting, while the original would never have lasted anything like long enough to get that weathered.
So there’s no single right answer to your question. If I had to generalise, though, I’d say you would be safer with matt than gloss or satin, finish, especially in 1/72 or smaller. After all, if it does turn out that your model is too flat, it’s only the work of a few minutes to give it an extra coat of Future!
Cheers,
Chris.