Care to speculate?

Modeling Subjects Aircraft
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I was reading a few aviation magazines recently, and it looks like the next few years will make for some interesting developments in the flock of fighters that patrol European skies.

If one is to take a look at the post war fighter activity over Europe, it seems each decade or so sees one fighter type in particular abundance beyond others patroling European skies.

The 50s saw a large number of Western European nations opting for either Sabres or members of Republic’s F-84 family.

The late 50s and early 60s saw these types give way overwhelmingly to the F-104 Starfighter.

By the 80s, most F-104 countries had converted to F-16s.

Now, with the Warsaw pact gone, Europe is a bit different a place. What do you think will be the most likely aircraft to be the denizen of European skies in the next decade or so?

I’m puting my vote for the SAAB Grippen.

A lot of those former Warsaw pact countries are looking for something to take the place of the MiGs,and fast. A lot of them don’t have the economies to procure and support viable forces of Eurofighters, F-22s or F-35s. That really leaves the Grippen as the only possible fourth generation fighter option open to them.

Some say that used F-16s will find their way into some former Warsaw pact air forces, this may come to pass, but I don’t think it will be in the high numbers some people predict. Its well known that the F-16s design is an early 70s one.

The Czech Republic will be taking the Grippen on early next year and I’ve heard Hungary will be following suit with that. I wouldn’t be surprized to see Poland also being a future Grippen user.

Austria is the last SAAB Draken user (if they have not already retired the type). They flatly turned down an offer of second hand F-16s from Belgium as replacements a year or two ago. They used SAAB 29s before the Drakens and I suspect we’ll see the Grippen gracing their airspace before long.

Thats my speculation.

What do you forsee?

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Well, i certainly think that the F-16s will be around for quite a while yet, as they’re doing all those rebuilds and overhauling… What about the Rafale (did i spell it right)? I’m not too sure that a lot of those former warsaw-pact countries will be in the market for 4th generation fighters… Though the MiGs are getting rather old…

And i have to say that the Drakken is a fantastic looking aircraft!

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Hmm… Interesting.

Well, its a good point you raised about the costs of the F-22 and F-35. As you said several ex-Warsaw Pact countries are looking at buying the Grippen. But then again, these countries could not have been considered when determining the dominant fighter type of the 50s, 60s, 70s and 80s. They were using Eastern Bloc equipment then.

The Grippen may be considered as a cost effective fighter, but some countries take into consideration other factors, like the viability/survivability of a twin-engined fighter. Plus, with the arrival of the F-22 and F-35, the Grippen (to my mind) may no longer be considered a top-of-the-line mount, such that other countries would look elsewhere.

In my view, if there is ever going to be a dominant fighter type in Europe, it would either be the Super Hornet or the F-35. The Super Hornet so far enjoys consumer confidence, being a frontline fighter of the US Navy. Plus, it has two engines. The F-35, although less capable than the F-22, would also be an attractive option. It has advanced features and has dual role capabilities. And with the US and UK buying these planes spare parts will not be a problem. Perhaps European users of the F-16s and FA-18s will simply eke out the effective lives of their current equipment and later on procure the F-35, although certainly in smaller numbers.

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Good points from both of you.

I agree the F-16 and F-18 will be around for quite a while to come, I simply suspect the main market for second hand ones won’t be found in the former Warsaw pact.

I suspect the Rafale will be a bit of a tough sell for Dassault. It entered service quite a bit later than projected and I understand it had significant development problems. Same can be said for the Eurofighter, lengthy development, teething problems that were quite well publicised. I don’t think it will see a lot of service outside the countries that designed it.

The Mirage III series was Dassault’s export masterpiece and I think they will have a great deal of trouble duplicating that type’s success.

You can say that the Grippen might not be considered a top of the line mount, but in that lies certain advantages for it:

Its proven in squadron service and has nearly completely replaced the design it was intended to (the Viggen) with few problems.

Its got the respect of its pilots, I don’t think anyone has said much negative about it.

It was the first fourth generation fighter into squadron service and the first to secure a foreign sale, that being to South Africa who are scheduled to take on their first Grippens in early 2007 if I’ve heard right.

Then there’s SAAB themselves, a company with very few failed aircraft designs, all their post war fighters have been single engine and of exceptional performance and adaptability.

If anyone were worried about the survivability of the single engined fighter, just think of how much of Sweden is within the Arctic Circle and that Sweden favours remote bases and using roadways as airstrips. These are tough single engined birds to say the least, and always have been by neccesity.

On the matter of the remaining MiGs, I think the 29 will be around a while longer, but there is a mad dash to get the remaining 21s out and the 23 is already gone. The Luftwaffe recently ceased MiG-29 operations and their aircraft were handed over to Poland.

On the matter of the Super Hornet, I can’t see it at all as Europe’s future fighter. Its gotten a lot of bad press about not being up to the previous Hornet variant’s standards of manouverability and such. I think that will hamper any foreign sales of it tremendously, and it is an expensive aircraft which will countr as a point against it in the eyes of smaller economies.

The F-35 I think will also be a big player in Europe, but I think its going to be the current F-16 using nations that make it that way, I doubt you’ll see too many of them hit the smaller former Warsaw pact economies.