Here in Michigan the economy to say the least is in the tank. I have noticed that the local Hobby Shops seem to have less and less in their inventory. Am curious to know if the present state of our economy has affected your spending on our hobby and caused anyone to finally attack your stash of unbuilt kits. I took inventory recently of my stash ( about 100 ) and was surprised to see what I had and forgot about, so I temporarily stopped adding to the pile and finally started to make a dent in them. Anyone else doing the same?
I live the great state of Michigan as well. I keep saying that I am going to put a dent in the stash. I have about 120 waiting, then I see one that is on sale or is a good deal and the stash continues to grow. Although I have slowed down some what. As far as local hobby shops, I have to drive 60 miles now to get to one and I don’t live in the Upper Pennisula! That is the one thing that I miss about the hobby, going into a local shop and drooling over the selection.
I live in Michigan as well & the Economy here is about as bad as I’ve ever seen. My favorite LHS is hanging on by a thread & I won’t be surprized if it closes down soon. Certainly the bad economy is a factor as discretionary spending on hobbies declines, but I think the Internet Hobby Suppliers are the main cause of the LHS decline. We all like to hang out at the LHS & ogle & fondle the new kit releases, then order them from an internet supplier to save a few bucks. Then when the LHS goes under, we bemoan its loss & continue to buy on-line.
I still buy some of the better new kit releases, but have become much more selective in what I purchase. I’ve also been thinning my stash of about 600 kits by selling off those that I know I’ll never build or kits that have been superceded by better newer releases. For example, after getting the new Eduard 1/48 F6F-3 Hellcat, I sold the 3 Hasegawa Hellcats I had in the stash. The Hasegawa kits are still good, but after seeing the new Eduard kit I knew I’d never build them.
Regards, Rick
Dennis,
I live in Green Bay (Howdy, neighbor!) and I’d have to echo your sentiments exactly when it comes to my personal economic situation and how it affects my stash. My wife quit her job to stay home with the kids which I think is a blessing. However, sacrifices had to be made and I have since stopped adding to my stash. If I had to guess, I’d say I’ve got about 30 kits in my stash.
On top of having a full time job and being a parent to two young girls, I’m also back in school to earn yet another degree. Factoring all that, it means I only have time to build maybe two kits a year if I’m lucky. When I realized it would take me 15 years to whittle away the kits in my collection, I decided to work with what I’ve got and spend what little loose change I had on the occasional bottle of paint or thinner.
So really, I wouldn’t say it’s the local economy. It’s more like my own person economics that has put a serious crimp in my modeling. But I don’t mind the fact that it takes me six months or more to complete one model. For me, it’s the journey, not the end, which is the most enjoyable part for me.
Sorry for blathering,
Eric
During a conversation of recent, even some of the hobby manufacturers are feeling the pinch, some more than others, my first quarter has been disappointing but one cannot dwell on the immediate or the short term, you have to look into the long term. Business is a series of peaks and valleys, just as is life. It makes for a very interesting ride, which keeps things interesting.
Generally, the hobby & craft industry does well in both bad and good economical times. When it’s good consumers purchase higher ticketed items, when bad they focus on lower priced items. As said, many modelers, refrain from adding to the stash but focus on building and purchase the necessary supplies and tools.
Well, down here in hurricane ravaged Louisiana, I have not been adversely affected by our local economy. Now if another “storm of the century” blows through here and ravages my 100+ kit stash… then I might start feeling a crunch… but for now… building merrily along…(when my wife/job/houses/cars/etc… allow me to!)
I know for me the local hobby shops are pretty much non existant in my area, and the ones that are local are corporate owned and their prices are so much that going to the internet is the smarter move. I have around 35-40 kits still left to be built and that stash is growing monthly. Why pay for something that is 10 - 40 dollars less online than at the LHS. Now, if the LHS was a true “mom & pop” owned and operated I would without a doubt support them at all times. But, don’t slam the internet for the demise of the LHS. Actually, I don’t think that the economy is the problem at all. I think its the buyer of the kits and the individual deciding whether or not to purchase the kit itself.
Now, this is only my opinion.
Maybe you should haul them up here for safe keeping…I have plenty of storage space!
[;)]
I do not feel there is a problem with our economy. There has been a general trend of LHSs closing due to the large internet hobby shops offering better prices but the overall hobby is strong with new material coming out of the European and Chinese manufactures (this is where most of our stuff comes from anyway.) I know my stash has been growing expotentially. As for the idea of a recession I think the stuff the medai has been pushing at us is pure BS, high grade. I work in the industrial sector (dealing with all automotive manufactures, military manufactures and medical manufactures) and do not see it. Yes some companies fail, that happens all the time regardless of overall economic conditions but the general trend seems to be consistent growth. The media tells us there is a recession, if we listen to this BS long enough and actually start to believe it then we could very well create a recession. Bill Clinton certainly hurt us with NAFTA and I truely believe the weakening dollar is directly connected to this but we are not in a recession.
This is my feeling. I will buy the occasional kit, but for the most part, I am going to be buying consumables almost exclusively for a while.
Whether the economy really goes into recession or not, either way the dollar is weak right now, and that means we will be paying higher prices for foreign kits. And if the price of oil continues to rise then kit prices will rise as well as styrene plastic is a petroleum product.
~Dave
I have pretty much stopped adding to my stash (I have about 150 on hand), not so much because of the economy, but more because I have pretty much all the kits I want. As a newer or better kit arrives on the scene, I sell or trade off the older versions, but I have kind of “plateaued” on my buying. Being retired and therefore fixed income, the overall state of the economy is of major import to me, especially in view of $3+ gasoline and the sudden surge in the price of food commodities. I just have to be a bit more circumspect in my buying, but that is probably a good thing. I am blessed with a decent, secure retirement pension, and when (if) the price of daily living drops to a decent level, things may change.
Brian [C):-)]
I beleive everyone that has posted here has made a valid point. It is a fact the economy stinks like a pair of old gym socks but the hobby itself seems to still be growing and expanding in my opinion. It is really hard to say if the internet has killed the local Ma’ and Pa’ hooby shop or is it just not as many people build plastic kits back in the 50’s 60’ and 70’s. The price of gas is killing our economy and that is a fact. There is only one way we move product from place to place in this country and that is with some form of petrol. Trains use diesel trucks use diesel most of us heat or homes with some form of petrol product. I know several small buisness owners who cost of supplies has skyrocketed in the last six months. Until we find a solution to this problem our economy will never improve. By the way I work at a Sunoco station. It use to cost about 8,000 to get a load of gas of which you might make 5% profit. Now it cost 28,000 for a load of gas and the station still only makes about 2,000 profit from the load of gas. In the New York Western Conn area many gas stations just closed up. The owners decided it was just not worth it to put out that kind of money to make a minimal profit. Where are the hydrogen cars that they are all talking about?
Soulcrusher
I suspect that the owners of various shops are moving into the “just in time” catagory. This means that the items you have on hand are at a minimal, and are also known as fast movers. Then lets say you want one of the new Hobby Boss A-10s, and you tell the dealer what you are after. He then has it expressed to him within three days (overnight if you just gotta have it). This saves the dealer money in not having dated stock, and also most important is not having to pay taxes on it during the Spring tax rush. This same scenero has started up a new cottage industry that’s making some folks a lot of money. It’s the smaller delivery trucks that run 24/7 from point to point. Over the road truckers hate them, but there’s no way they can compete with them due to the small size of the loads.
Myself, I’m now retired (since 12/06). Yes money’s tight as I expected, but it’s getting better. Been a hard winter, and just wrote a check for the highest electric bill I’ve ever had in this place ($287). I’ve probably bought way too many kits over the last twelve months, and will slow down a bunch in 2008. I hope to buy less than twenty-five kits this year. Stay too busy to work on them as much as I need to anyway, and I’m rapidly running out of places to stash the latest piece of inventory.
gary
Thankfully, when it comes to modeling, I’ve never been one to buy every kit that comes out.
When I first got back into the hobby a year ago, there were a few planes that I knew I wanted to model. So I did a little research and purchased the best that I could afford, taking into consideration refernce material and AM parts.
Granted, there’s an occassional kit that comes up or an idea that pops into my head that leads to another purchase. For instance, the Hot Shots build. I decided I wanted to build the planes from the movie, so I hunted down a Gnat and T-38/F-5 (both in 1/72) and built them. Or the visible B-17. I knew from the beginning that I wanted to do a B-17 but hadn’t found a kit I liked. Then the visible B-17 came back out, combined with the amount of AM parts, it was a no brainer. But I haven’t purchased another kit since I paid for the 17 back in July or so.
But after all is said and done, I only have 3 kits left in my stash, a Hase F4U-4, an eduard FW190A-6 and the visible B-17. And I don’t really see myself purchasing another kit until at least halfway through the 17 at the earliest.
-Fred
I agree with your sentiments 100%. The automotive industry in the Midwest is reinventing itself as I write this. Plants will be closed and then reopened at a later date completely rebuilt. New ones will open, and then be closed at a later date for another retooling. It’s an ever going cycle. Certainly the price of oil has a factor in this, but not as much as the press would like to cram down our throats. Otherwise we’d all be on bicycles. There is no recession yet anyway, but who’s to say we wont have one in 2009? (I’d make book on that). I’ll be buying a new car in 2009, and right now I’m looking at the new Chevy Volt unless there’s something better. For sure it will be made in the USA from an American company.
I used to buy about $250K to $500K a year in tooling alone when I worked. I made it a point to look for the “made in USA” tag because it’s a trickle down effect. When you buy a ton of Chinese or Korean steel the only thing you’ve done is hurt the domestic economy. Find it a shame that there are no manufacturers of quality kits in the USA anymore, and especially with all the fine injection molding plants in the Midwest.
gary
Our economic situation has been created from within our own borders, we tend to live a spend it all today, for there will be tomorrow lifestyle. We delve deeper into debt by making purchases we cannot afford or necessarily need to make. Many live lifestyles beyond their means and purchase things just for all the wrong reasons.
I know someone will jump on me for this but it is a good example IMO. I’m a pickup truck kinda guy…in fact I own one. Pickups are a part of our country’s lifestyle, but during the course of their increased popularity they have gone from a tool to a status symbol. There was a time when I really needed a 1 ton crew cab pickup to haul my family as well as tow heavy trailers for both business and pleasure. The ever increasing popularity of the larger capacity rigs kept inflating their price. A tradesmen could purchase a ‘work truck’ for $12,000.00 like I describe in the early 80’s, today that same truck sells for $50,000.00+, why…because there are those individuals who purchased them for prestige not for their functionality.
I’ve met many owners of these workhorses who purchased them only to drive them for their daily commute to work (of just a few miles), never ever haul or tow anything with them and rarely ever have any other passengers in the cab. Now in order for a tradesmen to get the essential ‘tool’ he needs, he has to pay an overly inflated price, thus pass on that increased cost through to you for the service/product he provides. In the end we all are paying for someones vanity. (Vanity is both expensive and painful.)
There was some discussion to find a means to correct this by imposing a vanity tax on operators of such vehicles. But it was squashed by the automotive manufacturing lobby because they felt it singled out them. But in fact it was only one of many items that were looked at to cut inflationary costs of doing business.
How does all this impact our hobby, well if you think about it, every little increase here and there comes around to impact our lives. The more you have to spend for essentials the less you have for non-essentials. Our society has put more emphasis on purchasing nonessentials thus making it difficult to keep the essentials affordable. Again, vanity is both expensive and painful no matter how you look at it. Once we learn how to minimize consumption of petroleum for example, the demand will decrease and so will the price. As long as we continue to consume it at these high price, what incentive is there for the oil companies to reduce the price.
I worked a bit on hydogen fuel celled vehicles a few years ago, and they are not ready to build at any cost right now (and yes we are building them as I write this). The real problem is not the automotive folks are anything like that. It’s the fuel cell suppliers. They are the ones who are lagging behind right now. There is a new crop of fuel celled cars hitting the market right now and they’re just a little better than pure junk. (sorry BMW) Fuel cell technology is maybe three generations away from being what we want, and that’s just the basic part of the equation. The motors are another, but they’re finally catching up fast. The batteries are the other big factor, and they’re very close right now (sorry Toyota). But if we had all the stuff here for the kind of fuel cell that is the buying public’s dream; they’d still have no place to fuel it up. Sure the oil companys want in that market, but they’re not going to get the basic monopoly they have right now.
A few years back we built two midsized sedans that were fuel cell powered. One was a basic stripped down version and the other was loaded with every option you could get and then some. The basic model would get 108 mpg on the highway, and the loaded one got 78mpg. When asked about buying one at the Detroit Auto Show they were told that those two cars would cost well over a million dollars a piece!! We built an electric car to be sold on California, and couldn’t give them away! Why? The price was almost four times what you could buy a midsized sedan. Do the math!
Right now the newpath is in deisel technology. Cummins is the complete leader here, but there are some others right behind them. This fall you will be able to buy a full sized truck that gets over 25 mpg and is very quiet and has very, very low emmissions. Now 25 mpg dosn’t sound like much, but when you look at what it compares with you see a different picture. That well over a 25% increase in fuel economy with much more power. This power train will find a home in some full sized sedans as well, and look for 33+mpg on the highway. There’s someother tricks I can’t tell you about, but they’ll eventually give another couple mpg in the trucks. Still as I write this the Fed is pushing mass transit development. We’re building hybred electric drive busses as fast as we can, and even have a few fuel celled ones out there too. They’re getting about 23mpg verses the six they used to get. There’s also one other one there working with that will reduce all the oil supplies to nothing but lubricants, but as I write this the military will get it first.
gary
I handle litlerally tons of steel parts every day from various manufactures and can always tell when its Chinese steel. I’ve had mixed loads come in, partially US Steel and Partially Chinese steel and boy can you tell the difference. As for painted products we have been getting all the rims for the Dodge Charger (which are painted intially in China) and man does the quality of workmanship suck. We have to remove all the paint so a US painter can do the job right. Have done about 4000 this week already. Do you think that might impact the price of your new car? So not only are you impacting our economy when you buy this stuff but you are not going to received the expected lifespan out of your product due to substandard materials and workmanship. As for the injection molding industry, where do you think those initial set-ups in China and Hong Kong came from? We (the USA) set those things up right after WW2. Sorry if I’m ranting but this stuff really pisses me off.
Just to throw in my own personal observations, I work for a large office furniture manufacturer. Back about six years ago, times were tough for us and had to go through a series of layoffs. However, in this time of the alleged recession (or close to it), my company has been having RECORD sales. Every year around Christmas, each and every employee gets a bonus depending on how our overall year in sales was. Let’s just say that in the nine years that I’ve been here, this past year was the largest bonus I’ve ever received.
I believe that there is truth in what Swanny says. One of my favorite movies is “Sneakers”. Has anyone ever seen that? In it they said that whoever controls the information controls the power. Ben Kingsly’s character was talking about crippling a bank or something of that nature. He said if you start a mere rumor that a bank is doing poorly, it’ll get people scared. They make a run on the bank and before you know it, the bank really is in trouble. I might have oversimplified that but my point is that if you tell people something long enough, they’ll start to believe it. Next thing you know, what was once a mere story is now reality. Personally I think that’s what we have going on here. But that is just my two cents. [soapbox]
Eric